IHS: U.S. Shale Production Growth Will Slow, but Still Remain High

November 25, 2014 Kirk Eggleston

The dip in oil prices isn't making a huge impact yet on the vast majority of U.S. shale production.

According to a report by research consultancy IHS Energy, most shale plays are economic and ~80% of potential drilling in 2015 would remain strong at WTI crude oil prices as low as $70 per barrel.

“Since 2008 the cumulative growth in U.S. tight oil production has been 3.5 million b/d—far exceeding supply gains from the rest of the world combined—making tight oil the key driver of global supply growth,” said Jim Burkhard, Vice President, IHS. “While current lower crude oil prices do present challenges for new investment, IHS analysis shows that the vast majority of potential U.S. supply growth in 2015 remain economical at $70 for WTI.” Jim Burkhard, VP IHS”

WTI traded at ~$76 on Monday, a nearly 20% drop since September. As a result, Bakken operators, including Emerald Oil, Inc., have already announced plans to potentially scale back their drilling programs in 2015.

North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) Director Lynn Helms updated lawmakers in October on the status of oil & gas development in the state. Helms said two factors could negatively impact oil production – lower oil prices and new flaring regulations.

Growth Still High, But Expected to Slow in U.S. Shale Plays

At lower prices, growth will slow, but still remain high, according to the report. In 2015, IHS estimates U.S. shale production will grow by 700,000 b/d at an average price of $77 per barrel in 2015. By contrast, in 2014, growth from U.S. shale plays was more than 1-million b/d.

“Expectations of the future—and the trajectory of oil prices—means that prices do not need to fall to the breakeven price before psychology, investment, and thus output, is affected,” Burkhard said.”

Approximately 80% of anticipated production has a break-even price between $50 to $69 per barrel, according to the report.

North Dakota Breaks Records for Oil & Gas Activity - Sep. 2014

November 20, 2014 Kirk Eggleston

The State of North Dakota hit 1,184,635 b/d oil in September 2014, setting a new record, according to the Department of Mineral Resources’ (DMR) November Director's Cut. That's 50,000 more b/d than August. During the same month, North Dakota also had record monthly gas production (1,403,448 mcf/d), and reported the highest number of producing wells to date (11,741).

But this month, the state's record breaking oil and gas activity is overshadowed by falling crude oil prices. September was a relatively good month for oil at ~93.00 on average for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), but prices have dropped nearly ~$20 in the last two months.

According to the DMR's report, released on November 14, 2014, the current rig count is down 15% in the states five most active counties:

Divide - down 54%
Dunn - down 29%
McKenzie - down 4%
Mountrail - down 24%
Williams- down 19%

DMR Director Lynn Helms blames the recent drop in the Bakken rig count directly on lower oil prices. The cost of drilling a Bakken well is high - anywhere between $8-million to $9-million. If the price of oil continues to fall, some producers, depending on their location in the play and a host of other factors, will scale back their Bakken drilling programs.

Flaring Down in North Dakota Bakken

The natural gas flaring rate dropped from 27% in August to 24% in September. By comparison, the highest flared percent of natural gas was 36% in September of 2011.

New regulations have called for producers to reduce flaring to below 26%, starting with their October production figures. Helms recently pointed out that in addition to lower oil prices, flaring regulations could also impact Bakken development, because producers may face production restrictions if they fail to meet the new standards.

Beginning on June 1st, the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) began implementing its first in a series of policy changes aimed at reducing flaring in the Bakken.

Seismic Activity Up in North Dakota Bakken, But Leasing is Down

Seismic activity is up with seven surveys active or recording and five permitted. New leasing on the other hand has dropped off sharply. Most leases consist of renewals and top leases in the Bakken - Three Forks area.

How the Keystone XL Pipeline Would Impact the Bakken

November 18, 2014 Kirk Eggleston

The Senate will vote today on a bill to approve the Keystone XL Pipeline, after the House voted to approve it last Friday. The controversial pipeline would carry heavy oil sands crude from Canada and lighter Bakken crude to the Gulf Coast refining market.

In 2013, the Congressional Research Service released a report that stated 12% of the Keystone XL Pipeline's 830,000 b/d ultimate capacity has been set aside for the transport of Bakken Crude. The report further said the Keystone XL pipeline project would include a lateral pipeline, called the Bakken Marketlink, to carry oil from Baker, MT, to the hub in Cushing, OK.

Although the Keystone XL Pipeline would play a role in the Bakken, its significance in the region has diminished slightly over time. Despite a still lacking midstream infrastructure in the Bakken, several pipeline projects have advanced as the political thunderstorm has ensued surrounding the Keystone XL Pipeline.

In September of 2013, Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, the Bakken's second largest producer, said the Keystone XL pipeline was no longer critical in an interview with Amy Harder from the National Journal. For full disclosure, at the time of the interview, Hamm's Hiland Partners was pushing its Double H Pipeline, a 460-mile pipeline project from Dore, ND, to Guernsey, WY., which is slated to be online by January of 2015.

Political Sway for the Keystone XL Pipeline

Senator John Hoeven (R-ND) is the Senate bill's chief sponsor. Hoeven has pushed for the pipeline for several years, and touts its benefits (i.e. an increase in jobs, energy security and a decrease in crude by rail transport).

“The Keystone XL pipeline is about energy, jobs, helping to grow our economy and increasing national security by increasing energy security,” Hoeven said in a prepared statement.”

Keystone Pipeline Could Alleviate Rail Congestion from Bakken Crude

Currently, just under 70% of all the oil produced in North Dakota, where much of the Bakken's development is concentrated, is transported out of the state by rail, ultimately making its way for now to refining markets, primarily on the East and West Coasts. The Keystone XL Pipeline could alleviate some of the rail congestion being caused by the transport of oil, which would free up the rail service in North Dakota and across the midwest for the transport of other goods, primarily agricultural.

Drones Coming to the Bakken Oil Patch?

November 13, 2014 Kirk Eggleston

Could drones be coming to the Bakken oil patch? It's not such a far fetched idea. According to the Bismarck Tribune, the Federal Aviation Administration and six other states, including Texas, home of the Eagle Ford Shale, have recently been selected as test sites for integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAV) or drones into the general population.

Modern drone technology can trace its origins back to the U.S. military in the late 1950s, but the concept of drones has been around since the 1800s. The commercial use of drones has been met largely with resistance from the FAA, however, the agency did grant ConocoPhillips permission to use drones in Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay oilfield, and in June of this year, granted a similar permission to British Petroleum.

How Drone Technology Could Be Used in the Oil Patch

With the green light from the FAA for testing in North Dakota, which for now is limited to agricultural applications, the next step could be in the Bakken oil patch. Only time will tell however if the technology will be approved for applications in North Dakota's energy industry.

Drone technology offers many possibilities for the oil & gas industry, with a range of applications, from testing for deadly H2S gas to inspecting miles and miles of pipeline. Increased safety for personnel and cost savings to companies are just some of the positives offered by drone technology. Drones could also be used in the Bakken for inspecting roads, tank batteries, and monitoring activity at the drill-site.

As with any new technology, there are always concerns, and drones in particular have garnered their fair share of scrutiny on the issue of privacy. What issues do you believe drone technology would cause if introduced to the Bakken oil patch?

Hess Increases Bakken Production Guidance Through 2020

November 11, 2014 Kirk Eggleston

Hess Corp., one of the top five Bakken producers, appears to be undeterred by lower oil prices, announcing plans to increase its five year production forecast this week.

After a successful Bakken downspacing pilot program in 2014, Hess told investors it would increase its net peak production guidance in the play to ~175,000 boe/d by 2020. The increase means the company would add an additional 1,000 well locations to a total of more than 4,000.

“Even at current prices, or below, there’s still many areas for attractive investment in the Bakken,” said CEO John Hess the company’s annual investor day on Monday.”

Hess told investors that he believes prices will rebound, and also pointed to drilling efficiency gains made in the Bakken that reduce the cost of drilling a Bakken well.

Hess' Tioga Gas Plant Expansion Project Paying Off

At the beginning of the year, poor weather conditions delayed work on Hess' Tioga gas plant expansion project, negatively impacting Bakken production in the first-quarter. By the second-quarter, production returned to expected levels, and at the end of the third-quarter production from the Bakken increased 21% year-over-year to 86,000 boe/d, due in part to the completion of the expansion project.

Hess' Q3 Bakken Operations

Hess brought 59 gross operated wells on production in the third-quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to 142 wells. Drilling and completion costs per operated well averaged $7.2 million in the third-quarter of 2014, a reduction of 8% from the third-quarter of 2013.

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